29 April 2026

Transcript – Interview with Patricia Karvelas, ABC Afternoon Briefing

Topics: CPI Data, Inflation, NDIS, Gas export tax

E&OE

Patricia Karvelas: The Shadow Treasurer, Tim Wilson. Welcome to the program.

Tim Wilson MP: It's lovely to see you, Patricia.

Patricia Karvelas: A big part of these inflation figures is transport. This period does not take into account the cut in the fuel excise either. The headline figure was also lower than what was forecast, than what we expected. So this figure will look better even next month because of course of the cut in the excise. Given the government can't control a war in the Middle East, it is controlling the controllables, isn't it?

Tim Wilson MP: Well, I think you've got to go back and look at the original data. Remember last month when the Reserve Bank increased interest rates, it was off the back of data from the second half of last year. Because the government kept pouring debt petrol on the inflation fire, it forced the hand of the Reserve Bank. Now we know since then that of course there has been the war in Iran and this is the first month where that data has been included in that or those factors have been included into the inflation data. So if we hadn't gone into this crisis in such a weak position with such high inflation, we wouldn't have the highest inflation of any major advanced economy in the world, and that's the problem. We went in weak, we're now going through it with the highest inflation of any major advanced economy in the world and that is the challenge that the Treasurer is trying to distract from.

Patricia Karvelas:Well, it's actually a double-edged sword. Of course, inflation was an issue. But you can't not acknowledge the fact that the war in the Middle East is creating what we are seeing as an unprecedented spike, right? If you look down at the line items, it is really crystal clear, isn't it?

Tim Wilson MP: I'm not arguing that for one second, but the... The question is, the basis in which we went into this crisis and other major advanced economies didn't go in with the same level of inflation because they didn't have a government pouring debt petrol on the inflation fire. Now, of course, we've gone in a weak position. We've seen a spike in inflation as a consequence of external factors. Let's imagine if the war in Iran ended tomorrow, Australia would still have an underlying inflation problem. And that's the problem that Australians are experiencing before the Iran crisis, now during the Iran crisis. And of course, we all hope that it ends as soon as possible, but they will still experience the consequences.

Patricia Karvelas: Let's look at some of the specific elements. Housing is a big factor in these figures, but rental inflation has actually decreased, slipping to an annual growth of 3.7%. It had peaked at 7.4%. That was, I think, in the middle of 2024. What do you put that down to? Does it show that some of those programmes are actually working?

Tim Wilson MP: I wouldn't go that far, I think what we've got is a significant problem around housing cost construction in Australia because the government is actively stoking inflation in the housing sector. We've seen that in how they design public programs for public projects, increasing costs on those projects that flow through to private construction costs. And that is a sustained problem. You talk to builders and people who want to invest in building new housing in Australia and they increasingly say it's hard to be able to afford to do so, particularly at affordable rates for Australians and for first home buyers. Until we get that under control, we've had 60 per cent increase over the past six years for new housing construction. It's going to be very hard to continue to build the housing stock Australians need.

Patricia Karvelas: So obviously spending has been identified by many economists as one of the issues. The government has outlined some pretty dramatic cuts to the NDIS. Do you give them credit for outlining what is a very controversial idea to try and pull back some spending in the federal budget?

Tim Wilson MP: Well firstly they opposed every single attempt to try and constrain the growth in the NDIS when we were last in government. Now they're not talking about cutting the NDIS, they're just talking about slowing its growth because it was on unsustainable trajectory and there's still a debate about whether it's sustainable from here. Remember when the NDIS was designed it was designed to be about a $15 billion program. It's now around $50 billion projected out to go into the 60s. The government knows that by costing more than Medicare, more than defence and the volume of fraud and corruption which the National Disability Insurance Agency itself says is conservatively around 10% or $5 billion, they had to do something. What's extraordinary is they've finally acted and they're still only talking about slowing the growth. They're not actually focused on addressing the root causes of the problem.

Patricia Karvelas: Can I ask then, do you think they should be going further than what they've outlined?

Tim Wilson MP: Well I think if there's fraud and corruption in the system, as we've seen not just in the NDIS but is now being modelled in other government programs, that rot needs to be cut out because that's honest Australian taxpayers' money going to dishonest objectives or dishonest agents.

Patricia Karvelas: But just to fact check, absolutely, and the government's already said that's unacceptable, it's already talked about registered providers now in the scheme, so some of that change is already happening. I just want to be clear, the projections that they've so far offered is 160,000 people coming off the NDIS. Do you think they should go further than that number?

Tim Wilson MP: Well I want to actually see them deliver what they've actually promised. The proposal they put forward for the National Disability Insurance Scheme reforms that they're arguing for has fallen over at the first hurdle because the states need to come on board. It doesn't seem like they're going to and there's still a lot of negotiations. So there's a lot big talk whether they're actually going to deliver them. I'd like to see them delivered what they're promising already.

Patricia Karvelas: Just on a couple of other issues, do you welcome the Prime Minister officially ruling out a gas export tax?

Tim Wilson MP: Well I think this is going to be part of the ongoing conversation about how we secure our national supply of resources and make sure that there's appropriate taxation so I don't think this issue in any sense has gone away. The key thing is that if we're going to have a conversation about these taxes they have to be done in a way which incentivises people to extract gas because Australia needs gas and of course we need to export it as part of our revenue stream for the nation and it needs to be down that aligns with incentivising investment. A lot of the people who are arguing for different tax models potentially could either cut taxes if they get the model wrong. I still remember the mining tax Labour proposed in 2010 which raised no revenue or it can actually undermine the operation of the sector and there are a lot of people who seem to want to add new taxes onto the gas industry but they also seem to be the people who want the industry to shut down.

Patricia Karvelas: Okay, but just on this question of whether this goes away, you're saying this doesn't actually make this big discussion around a potential gas tax or gas tax settings go away. There is a big populist push, that's how the Prime Minister framed it from the left and the right. Do you think that was overly dismissive of the push for change?

Tim Wilson MP: I'm not arguing that. The Prime Minister's made his statement. What I've said is that I don't think, just because he's ruled it out, that it's going to stop people campaigning on it. I don't believe that for one second. The question is what are we going to do in our national interest.

Patricia Karvelas: No, and why should it? Because we're in a free country. People can campaign for anything they want. The issue though, Tim Wilson, is when there's a campaign and it's working that people think, yeah, that makes sense. That's the issue, isn't it? That's the wicked problem for the political class, people like you.

Tim Wilson MP: Well it is, but that's why I've made it very clear the objective of having tax on things like gas is to make sure that... We incentivise extraction as part of the revenue we need for domestic supply and that it's a measured approach to get the outcome we need. As I said, I remember when Labour went and applied a new tax on the mining industry in 2010, it simply didn't deliver the results they expected and a lot of the people who are arguing for these plans or running these campaigns don't want gas to be used. That's pretty clear to me and I think it's clear to a lot of people. The question is, what is their objective? Is it actually to raise the revenues or to shut down the industry?

Patricia Karvelas: Pauline Hanson appears to have had a private jet donated by donors, there's a lot of donations going her way, she says, she's pretty proud of it. Do you think that that influence in politics, for instance, Gina Rinehart's been key here, is helping to drive the direction of One Nation's politics?

Tim Wilson MP: Well, that's for Pauline Hanson to answer. I mean, what we know is that the Labour Party is completely captured by the ACTU and has always advocated for their interests based on that.

Patricia Karvelas: Oh come on, that's a dramatic pivot I have to take you away from. I asked about Pauline Hanson and One Nation and Gina Reinhardt and this new jet. So what do you think of that?

Tim Wilson MP: I'm answering the question, Patricia, which is the Labour Party is controlled by the ACTU and the trade union movement. We have Simon Holmes who's regularly been involved in the campaigns on the teals. So we've got big vested interests that sit behind a lot of these in political movements and now we've got a billionaire donating a plane to Pauline Hanson. What a shock. You know, it's up to her to answer, ultimately, the correlation. It seems to me pretty clear that there's obviously a relationship there.

Patricia Karvelas: OK, so lots of big interests backing different political movements. I think that's largely true. That's how people see it. So does that mean, like, is big business behind the Liberals or not anymore? Like, who are your big backers then?

Tim Wilson MP: Not according to the donations, as I can assure you, it hasn't been for a long time. As you acknowledged just then, we're the party of the small businesses and average Australians who want to get ahead. That's the fundamental difference between us and every other political party. They're organised to achieve the interests of whether it's renewable energy investors, in the case of the Teals, the labour movement, organised labour or organised capital in the Labor Party and of course there will be other political parties that you know these days have a connection to billionaires.

Patricia Karvelas: What's your response to the Treasurer calling you a karaoke clown? You have, you did the singing in the parliament, I'm not going to judge a singing, some people have though, but I'm no. Then you did this playlist. I don't care. Are these... I know you don't. Are these just stunts that are below, should be below a senior politician?

Tim Wilson MP: I think the Treasurer has overseen a bonfire of inflation in the Australian economy. On the day we've had inflation data that has seriously shown the risk to Australian households and concern for the future, he's obsessing over me. Now that's his decision, he did it yesterday as well. Mate, don't you have a budget to design to define the future of this country? I think the Treasurer has consistently shown that he is focused and is distracted from his core job because he doesn't have the answers to the problems that Australians face and even more so, he has caused the inflation problem that Australians are now living. Now he's trying to distract it onto me. Go nuts, because everyone can see that the Emperor has no clothes when it comes to solutions for the future in Australia, and the Emperor in this case is the Treasurer.

Patricia Karvelas: Thank you so much for your time, and that was the Shadow Treasurer.