18 March 2026

Topics: Interest rates, CGT, conflict in Iran

E&OE

Peter Stefanovic: Joining us live this morning is Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson. Thanks for your time, Tim. So who do you think is to blame for this latest hike?

Tim Wilson MP: Well if only you could pay your mortgage with Jim Chalmers' excuses. The Reserve Bank has made it crystal clear in its statement, it was the second sentence, that this is an interest rate hike off the back of inflation data in the second half of last year. That means Australians are paying $27,600 a year more on the average mortgage, and unfortunately, because this is off this data came out for December and the second half of last year, the RBA Governor has gone on and said we can't guarantee that there may not be more to come.

Peter Stefanovic: So just to elaborate though on that inflation data that's a mixture of public and private spending right?

Tim Wilson MP: Well it's heavily driven by public spending. What's happening is the federal government is pouring debt-

Peter Stefanovic: But they don't actually say public spending?

Tim Wilson MP: Well actually they have in previous statements and in the answers at the House of Representatives Committee on Economics. Treasury's own estimates have outlined that over the past four years that they've had to upward revise their spending by about $100 billion. What's happening is that the federal government is taking debt, they're pouring it into the economy through different projects and schemes. It's pushing up private demand and that's why interest rates are going up as well. The government needs to stop pouring debt petrol on the inflation fire.

Peter Stefanovic: Even on that point and it's not mentioned in the statement and I'm curious about your thoughts about this. She was kind of at pains not to blame public spending yesterday. I'm talking about Michelle Bullock here. How do you read into that?

Tim Wilson MP: She pains to say nothing.

Peter Stefanovic: Well, so how do you read into that?

Tim Wilson MP: Well what I read into it is the last time we had a Reserve Bank Governor who highlighted the problems of public spending, the answer from the Labor government was to try and bully him out of office. And I think this is now what happens when Jim Chalmers is under pressure is you start to see the less smiley version of Jim and you start to see the nastier side of Jim. What we need is a Treasurer who's going to take responsibility, control spending and make sure that he's not actively stoking an active inflation agenda as he is right now, because Australians are paying it through $27,600 a year more on the average mortgage.

Peter Stefanovic: It's terrible that folks are having to pay so much at the moment, but do you think in a way that the RBA Governor is being pressured not to blame government spending?

Tim Wilson MP: Well, everybody knows what happened to the last Reserve Bank Governor when they stood up and called out the government's programs and, of course, I absolutely respect the role of Reserve Bank Governor and have, you know, confidence that they'll continue to do their job independently. But we know when put under pressure in parliamentary inquiries, the arguments being put forward by the Treasurer have fallen away. They have said, yes, public spending drives private demand, but are they going to do it necessarily in the headline? Well that's a matter for her.

Peter Stefanovic: How do you think the RBA has handled all of this whether it comes whether it involves rate cuts or rate rises?

Tim Wilson MP: Well their hand has been forced. As the RBA statement yesterday said, these interest rate rise is off the back of data from the second half of last year because it's off the back of data from last year, which we've now seen for many months. It's clear that they've had to make a conscious choice. It was obviously a split decision, a very tight decision, but the only question was, do they go now or do they go slightly later. And the RBA has forecast, of course, that there may be yet more to come because the government has kept the inflation fire burning and now, of course, we have international factors to factor into the future.

Peter Stefanovic: Yeah and that's trouble ahead, no doubt. So if the government is to blame for its own high spending, its record spending, does it also get plaudits for low unemployment and jobs growth?

Tim Wilson MP: Well the data shows that if you keep having more public spending to mask the private sector crisis in employment, then you can cover up the data. The real problem we have in the economy is the public sector is crowding out the private. Public spending is crowing out private investment, which is growing sustainable jobs. They're covering and cooking the books to cover over the situation that our country faces. They're not building a sustainable economy of growth opportunity for the next generation of Australians. And that's what we should be concerned about, we're being punished today and they're not even building the future that Australians need.

Peter Stefanovic: Looking ahead at the budget now, it looks like Labor is going to change the capital gains tax discount after a parliamentary inquiry claimed it does fuel housing inequality. Are you braced for that?

Tim Wilson MP: Well, we're absolutely prepared for that conversation because we know what's happening. We know that the government at the moment finds it easy to say, new taxes on you than they do to say no to the corrupt CFMEU. We know that $15 billion has gone out from public money to organise crime through the CFMEU Labor cartel. We know the National Disability Insurance Agency says about 10% of their $50 billion program, or $5 billion, is going towards fraud and corruption. And the answer from the government is to turn around and say, let's increase taxes on Australians, let's not stop fraud and corrupt. This government has its priorities wrong.

Peter Stefanovic: But you've said in the past, and we've spoken about this, there's no intergenerational justice when it comes to capital gains. So are you being hypocritical?

Tim Wilson MP: No, I didn't say that. What I said, there's an issue with the difference between the income tax rate and the capital gains tax rate. And my answer to that is to lower the income tax rate, Jim Chalmers' answer is to increase the rate of capital gains and add a new housing tax onto the economy. Simple lesson for you, Jim. You didn't understand inflation, so you don't understand why you're driving interest rates. If you increase taxes on housing, you won't get more housing being built in Australia to lower costs and give the chance for first homeowners to have their chance at the Australian dream.

Peter Stefanovic: OK, just elsewhere, Jim Chalmers coming up the programme, by the way. Just a final one, and a side to all of that. Donald Trump, and I'll just get your view because you're a member of the opposition. Donald Trump has singled out Australia overnight, Tim. He's also blasted NATO allies, he's blasted UK, et cetera, for not helping in the Strait of Hormuz. How have you read into that? As far as I'm aware, there's been no specific request from the US to us, but how have you read into it?

Tim Wilson MP: Well, we need to understand that we weren't given as a nation full warning of this initial attack in the context of Iran. We all have a stake, obviously, in the matter being resolved. But I think if you want assistance as a foreign country or a foreign power, the first thing you need to do is give us a heads-up that it was going to occur.

Peter Stefanovic: Okay, we'll leave it there. Tim Wilson, the Shadow Treasurer, thank you so much.

ENDS