Wednesday 13 May 2026

Transcript - Interview on Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast

Topics: Federal Budget

E&OE ...

Michelle Grattan: Tim Wilson, Jim Chalmers says that the budget won't be in surplus until the mid 2030s. How quickly do you think the budget should be back in surplus?

Tim Wilson: We always want the budget to be in surplus, but the reality of what this government is doing is making it very hard to do so. We will be outlining our fiscal priorities in light of the budget reply tomorrow night, but one of the biggest concerns of this budget is they keep increasing debt. We are now projected to be 1.25 trillion dollars by the forward estimates, and there is no spending constraint to the scale government is continuing to grow faster than the private economy this year, and the government does not have the focus they need to get spending down, therefore debt down, therefore to make sure it is in surplus.

Michelle Grattan: So without being precise, do you think a Liberal government could at least do better than the mid 30s?

Tim Wilson: Well, we certainly will target a lot of the basic work that needs to be done around cutting spending. This government has been dragged kicking and screaming to stop things like the fraud and corruption the NDIS, the phantom children being enrolled in childcare services. What we are seeing is disturbing behavior, NDIS-like, around home care aged packages. As well as, of course, the 15 billion dollars given to organized crime through the CFMEU. This government does not respect Australian taxpayers nor their money, and until you have that basic test of respect, you are not going to get the budget back in surplus.

Michelle Grattan: I think the organized crime money which you alleged went from the Victorian government...

Tim Wilson: ...and the federal government funded these projects. In fact, they are going to pile more money into these big build projects in this budget. It provides for 3.8 billion dollars of more federal funding to go into the suburban rail loop. When we have asked the Prime Minister whether any federal money has gone into it, or whether he will audit whether any federal money has gone and found its way into the hands of bikie gangs, organized crime, or criminal cartels, he simply refused to engage or even do an audit.

Michelle Grattan: Now, you criticized the high tax to GDP ratio. Will the coalition produce a plan, and when, to reduce that ratio?

Tim Wilson: Well, we are critical because this is now the highest taxing government over its life in Australian history. And so, we will absolutely be producing a plan before the next election that steps through how we want to constrain spending, how we want to make sure that we stop the ongoing rampant increase in public expenditure under this government. And of course, some of these points will be discussed in the Leader of the Opposition's budget reply tomorrow night.

Michelle Grattan: You've signalled—the opposition has signalled—that it will oppose the housing tax changes in the budget. Do you think that this will hamper you because it will send a negative message to many of the younger voters who seem to favour such changes and who are pretty desperate to get into the housing market?

Tim Wilson: Well, we absolutely believe that young Australians should be able to get into the housing market. The first place to start with that is not to put upward pressure on rents, because young Australians tend to rent before they, of course, go on and buy their first home. The government's own budget documents say these tax changes will increase rents. So they are going to take from young Australians before even their first home buyers. Then they are going to tax—apply a high capital gains tax—on the deposits if they are invested for first time buyers, so they are going to kneecap young Australians there as well. And then when they go and buy their first home, the government's own budget documents say that these tax changes will lead to lower numbers of homes being built, 35,000 over the next decade. So we are going to have fewer homes and the government's own budget documents say there is going to be an overshoot on migration numbers, meaning higher demand. So lower supply, higher demand, it is actually going to have the complete reverse effect in terms of reducing house prices or making them more accessible for first time buyers.

Michelle Grattan: Nevertheless, I think the politics suggest that that sort of message is going to be really hard to sell for the opposition.

Tim Wilson: Well, we're also just in the business of respecting Australians and telling the truth. We're using not even our data, we're using the data from their own budget papers, which say there will be fewer homes built and higher rents under this government's tax policies. And that is not going to increase the number of young Australians in homes. I fully understand that there has been a campaign from Labor over a long period of time to try and demonize taxes as the basis for why they can't get—young Australians can't get into their first home. We've just had Bill Shorten out there boasting about how this is his secret agenda that the Australian people rejected in 2019. But what we know from their own budget documents: rents will go up, we will see higher taxes on first time deposits when they are invested, and fewer homes while demand will increase as well.

Michelle Grattan: The coalition's traditional strength, its fighting ground, has been economic management. But you seem to have lost that strength quite significantly in recent times. How can you get that back? And just going back to the tax question, what do you think that ratio to GDP should be?

Tim Wilson: So the way we steer our economic strength is to back in hard the self-starters of this nation, the small businesses and people who are trying to get ahead. The people who are directly targeted by these tax measures. There are so many people in Australia who woke up, went to bed last night thinking that they were in a country that actually encouraged and incentivized aspiration. And instead, what we have now is a government that is kneecapping young Australians who are putting their effort to get ahead, where hard work pays off and they feel a sense of control over their own lives. We're very much focused on how do we build out a policy program that says if you back yourself, we will back you in 500 percent because the self-starters of this nation are not just the people who set up businesses, they go on and employ more people, they're the ones who drive innovation and create economic opportunity for others. We need to make sure we're backing them in. Labor's answer is how do we tax those people and sap their effort.

Michelle Grattan: And on the ratio, the desirable tax...?

Tim Wilson: Well, it's obviously got to be lower than where we are at the moment and we're always seeking to reduce it, but I'm not going to give you a specific number because we need to make sure that it's done in a way that's sustainable, that grows the economy. Because one of the biggest problems we now have is the government has a very active inflation agenda. They stoke inflation, they then tax the inflation, then they spend inflation and keep it in a vicious cycle. That's why young Australians—all Australians—no matter how hard they work, don't feel like they're getting ahead. That's why when the government offers tax cuts, it's really only to address bracket creep and inflation overtakes that bracket creep. Take the tax cuts they took to the last election: they were wiped out by inflation by December, and the ones they've announced last night are going to be wiped out by this December.

Michelle Grattan: Of course, there's a very direct way to tackle that, and that's tax indexation. Peter Dutton flirted with that at the last election but didn't produce a policy. Why don't you take the courage—take courage in your hands—and go down that road?

Tim Wilson: Well, courage has never been something I have lacked at all and more than happy to have these conversations over the coming months. But I just wait for the budget reply from the Leader of the Opposition tomorrow night. Because I have a very different vision from the Treasurer on where he wants to take the Australian economy. His pathway of managing the Australian economy is debt, decline, and social division, starting fights around kitchen tables. My vision is focused on growth, opportunity, and empowering the next generation of Australians to seize their destiny.

Michelle Grattan: Now the government has proposed a lot of regulatory reforms in this budget. You're opposing the tax changes, but will you back those?

Tim Wilson: Well, we're certainly very open to the efforts to reduce red tape, but the one thing I always put as an asterisk of caution about whether they're actually going to deliver them. We've seen so many times with this government. They say we've reduced spending by 114 billion dollars; they then in the next breath go and spend 223 billion dollars. They make big boasts about what they're going to do in reducing green tape and red tape in this budget. Let's see them actually do it because really what they're doing is increasing the number of people who are employed in government departments. In our experience, that simply leads to more regulation, more compliance costs on business, not actually creating growth and productivity.

Michelle Grattan: I think we've seen efforts or promises to reduce red tape from both sides of politics and been disappointed in the result. But just turning to a broader question: at the weekend, of course, we saw this surge of support for Pauline Hanson. Do you think that One Nation support is making it harder to convince people of mainstream economic policies?

Tim Wilson: Well, I think that's true of the extremist Greens and of course you have other parties like the one you just mentioned who in a kind of pop consumer way think they can sell people anything without the consequences of government. So yes, I do believe that the rise of parties at the fringe makes it harder to sell mainstream messages. But that comes down to leadership and giving people a sense of confidence about where we're going and what we're trying to build. I think the next election is going to be a real—is going to be a lot of stark choices. But the starkest choice is going to be between the coalition and the Labor party. The Labor party's vision for the Australian economy is debt, decline, and division. Ours has to be unity, aspiration, opportunity, and growth because that is the only way we're going to be able to lead into the future.

Michelle Grattan: Just on One Nation, you had some confusing messages at the weekend about the extent to which the Liberals should embrace or not embrace One Nation, which I think you then sought to clarify. Can you just sum up very briefly what your position is on that?

Tim Wilson: All I have said in the past is that if the people of Australia vote for members of parliament to be elected, I'm not a democratic denier. I respect the will of the Australian people. But when I was asked and have been asked will you be forming a coalition or are you seeking to form one, the answer is no. And Pauline Hanson has made that clear herself as well. I think she's now had some other confusing statements where she wants to run off and become Prime Minister or something, as she can rightly say. My focus is on how do we get 150 seats in the House of Representatives, 76 seats in the Senate for Liberal MPs because I fundamentally believe the best interests of Australia is built off the back of a coalition government that's focused on growth and opportunity where hard work pays off and, frankly, taxpayers feel respected because Australians have control over their lives.

Michelle Grattan: Now just finally, your colleague Andrew Hastie said and I quote, no one is going to reward us for a final last stand for neoliberal politics. Is neoliberalism dead?

Tim Wilson: Well, I think different political worldviews have a time and in my book The New Social Contract: Renewing the Liberal Vision for Australia in 2020, I talked about this. And how well before Andrew made these comments, the world after the Cold War needed a shift and a change towards more choice and competition and efficiency of capital. But we're going into a different time based on geostrategic events where there's now a security premium for society. We're going to see a shift towards resilience and the question is how do we do that in a cost effective way so that we can secure the nation, unite our country, but more importantly build a better future for everyone.

Michelle Grattan: Tim Wilson, thanks for joining us on this post-budget day.

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