Wednesday, 4 November 2026

Topics: interest rates; inflation; government spending; Reserve Bank of Australia; cost of living; small business; NDIS; gas export tax; housing affordability.

E&OE……………………..

Graeme Goodings: My next guest is Opposition treasury spokesman Tim Wilson. Tim, good morning, thanks for your time today.

Tim Wilson: Thanks for having me, Graeme.

Graeme Goodings: The rate hike came as no surprise.

Tim Wilson: Well, it didn't come as a surprise for anyone who's been following the inflation data and the government's spending addiction. The problem is a lot of households are sitting around the kitchen table right now and trying to figure out what it is they're going to cut. And of course, a lot of people are looking and going, "I can't cut anything more out of the supermarket bill," and they're looking at things like kids' school excursions and saying, "Is that where we're going to have to go next?"

Graeme Goodings: You blame Labor's spending for fuelling inflation, but there are other factors: the Middle East crisis, fuel prices, etc.

Tim Wilson: Well, the Reserve Bank Governor said yesterday that this is a domestic problem and that interest rate hikes aren't going to change global oil prices. This is designed to get the domestic problem of inflation, we've had five interest rate hikes this year. Most developed countries exposed to the same pressures have only had one. This is an Australian problem, and it comes back to the government's spending addiction. Until they kick that habit, it's going to be hard to see interest rates coming down.

Graeme Goodings: The Treasurer seems to blame everything but federal government spending.

Tim Wilson: Well, he does. He likes to deflect. He's not interested in taking responsibility. He blamed all of last term on international factors. Now he's trying to blame it on international factors again. But the Reserve Bank basically kneecapped him before his press conference yesterday by saying that interest rate hikes won't change global oil prices. The government needs to get its spending under control. We've outlined $31.3 billion of savings they could make right now if they want to, but they're just not focused on weaning themselves off higher taxes and higher spending. And that means not just that we got a hike yesterday, the RBA floated that they're going to stay at these rates for the next 12 months, and it's going to be very punishing for households and families.

Graeme Goodings: So, if you were on the Treasury benches tomorrow, what would be your first move to curb inflation?

Tim Wilson: Well, the key thing is we need to find savings and reduce government expenditure. That's why we've already outlined $31.3 billion of savings, from climate bureaucracies that don't cut emissions to housing bureaucracies that don't build homes, welfare for future non-citizens, and frankly, just cutting out the waste and corruption that we have. Currently, because of the government's tobacco excise policy, we're literally handing over money to organised crime through foregone tax revenue. And this week, there have been audits looking at the government's claimed savings in the National Disability Insurance Scheme. They're not convinced it's going to be delivered, and not only are those savings not going to be delivered, spending is going to continue on to fund fraud, corruption, and organised crime, and it's inflationary.

Graeme Goodings: Well, there's an area that people say, and governments and oppositions seem to be shying away from, the fact that we are foregoing so much money, billions of dollars, taxing gas exports. Would you consider doing that?

Tim Wilson: That gas industry already pays 40% of its revenue on tax, so the government has a spending problem; it doesn't have a revenue-raising problem. At the moment, we've got the ATO pursuing small businesses like Rottweilers, we're not getting the economic growth we need, and government continues to grow faster than the private sector. We have a cost of government crisis, not a cost of living crisis, and we need to make sure that we get spending under control, otherwise pressure on households will continue.

Graeme Goodings: When you look at Australia's situation, our inflation rate is higher than comparable countries, G20 countries around the world. Why are they doing better, or how are they doing better than we are?

Tim Wilson: Well, it's not that they're doing it better, it's just they don't have a government that's completely addicted to spending like we do. We have a problem where unemployment is growing, we have inflation continuing to grow, and we're not having productivity or growth in the private sector like other countries are. And this is the problem: we've had five interest rate hikes this year, whereas most developed countries have only had one, and that's because their inflation problem has been nowhere near as bad as ours has been because they don't have the same problem with a government that's completely addicted to spending.

Graeme Goodings: The RBA seems to be dancing around the suggestion that we could be heading for a recession. Do you think that's a possibility?

Tim Wilson: Well, if we keep going on the current trajectory, the RBA said that it will feel like one, and I fear we may end up having one. The problem is the economic model of the Albanese government is focused on expanding the size of government and the number of people dependent on government for their lifestyle. What we need is private investment and private sector growth where people depend on the private economy, and particularly small business. Small business is not just the engine room of the economy, it's the pathway where most people get employed, where you get the most innovation and the most productivity. Instead, what we're seeing is the Albanese government has declared war on small business through higher costs and higher taxes, and they're kneecapping small businesses that just want to keep their doors open.

Graeme Goodings: Inflation is the issue, and it's an issue that's not going to go away soon. It would appear the only way to fight inflation is to push up interest rates. It's been said by many it's a blunt instrument. Is there a better way?

Tim Wilson: Of course it's a blunt instrument, but this is a problem of what happens when the government won't kick its spending addiction. So, there are other ways to do it. You can grow the private sector faster than the government, public expenditure, that's why you back small business and get them to grow, and you will get a better economic outcome. Instead, the government is targeting small business. And the other pathway is to reduce government expenditure. Instead, the government keeps expanding spending. Every time they claim they're saving money, they save $2 but then go on and spend $3, and inflation pressure just gets worse.

Graeme Goodings: You've talked about curbing spending, but would a Coalition government commit to a specific target as a share of GDP?

Tim Wilson: Our focus is on announcing specific measures now, but we've got two more federal budgets before the next federal election. Our objective is to absolutely commit to a target in the medium term to make sure that we can get the budget under control, we can get inflation down, and we can get interest rates down. One of the most important ingredients to that is to promote economic growth, because I don't want to see an Australia where we're going to rising unemployment, like the RBA has projected will happen under this government over the next 12 months. Going with that goes jobs, it goes livelihoods, it goes capacity for Australians to own their own home, and of course it has a big impact on the small businesses that depend on consumers in the community.

Graeme Goodings: What is your prediction for the next 12 months if the government doesn't act soon?

Tim Wilson: The RBA's statement of monetary policy clearly outlines that under current settings we are going to have higher inflation, higher interest rates, higher unemployment, declining values of homes, and we're not going to have new homes being built. There'll be the completion of existing stock, but we're not going to get new ones being built, which is just going to set future generations up for failure. The whole argument of the government on why they've imposed higher taxes on Australians was that it would improve housing affordability. But what we've seen is rents are going to rise and there's going to be less housing stock, which means that prices will eventually rebound, but it will be because people won't be able to get into homes.

Graeme Goodings: The government has imposed measures that have seen house prices decline. Are you comfortable with those?

Tim Wilson: We've seen wages and wealth go backwards under this government's higher tax scenario, but we're not seeing economic growth. I'm never comfortable seeing wealth and wages go backwards. I'm never comfortable seeing Australians getting poorer. I want a nation where Australians see real improvements in their living standards, and young Australians in particular look to the future with confidence and hope that Australia can deliver for them. Instead, we're going in the wrong direction.

Graeme Goodings: Tim Wilson, thanks for your time today.

[ENDS]