Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Topics: inflation; interest rates, government spending, fuel prices, household budgets

E&OE……………………..

Graeme Goodings: Well, my next guest is Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson. Shadow Treasurer, good morning to you.

Tim Wilson: Good morning, Graeme.

Graeme Goodings: Now, Jim Chalmers blames the previous Coalition government and the Middle East war for today's economic problems. How do you see it?

Tim Wilson: Well, it's not just he's blaming the former Coalition government, the Middle East war, he's blaming artificial intelligence, the Reserve Bank, the former Reserve Bank Governor, the list goes on. At no point, though, is he turning around and saying the one thing that is a persistent problem is government spending. You know, if the government turned around to Australian households and asked them to pull their belt in, they should do the same, and if the government pulled their belt in as much as Australian households, the budget would be $22 billion better off. There'd be less inflation pressure, that means there'd be less pressure on interest rates, and when Australians went to the supermarket, they'd get the same products, but they wouldn't be paying more. Instead, they're continuing to pay more, and they're struggling as a result.

Graeme Goodings: Is he in a state of denial? Michele Bullock has alluded to the fact that government spending is having an impact. The IMF has said, you know, the state and federal governments need to tighten their belts. Is Jim Chalmers just ignoring the advice that he's getting?

Tim Wilson: Well, I think we've now diagnosed a new condition. It's called Chalmers Syndrome, which is a complete denial of economic reality and particularly what you're doing to kind of give yourself political, economic stimulus, which is stoking inflation. Yes, he's in denial, and look, it's difficult, I get it. Their whole economic model has been to tax the part of the productive economy that is undermining investment, so their only pathway through is to spend more from the taxpayer. Currently, we have public spending at 26.9% of GDP. They're only raising tax at about 24.1%. By the way, that's the second highest government in the history of the country. But they're continuing to spend more than they're getting in revenue as a way to cover for the fact that they're destroying the private economy. That stokes inflation, that stokes interest rates, and of course, it means when people go to the supermarket, they're paying more for the same amount in their trolley.

Graeme Goodings: It's all well and good for you to sort of say, you know, what he's doing is wrong, but if you were in the Treasury benches, what would you do to rectify the situation?

Tim Wilson: Well, firstly, we've already said that we'll pare back public spending and make sure there's proper control of the budget. We’ve outlined housing bureaucracies that don't build a single home, net zero bureaucracies which don't actually cut emissions, and make sure that we get rid of a lot of corporate welfare so that we pull the belt in before we turn around to the Australian community. We'll focus on getting rid of corruption and fraud in schemes like the NDIS. The government was dragged to the need to do some action kicking and screaming. We see use of public money and integrity around the expenditure of public money as central. But frankly, the other thing we need to do is we need to get growth back into the productive part of the economy, the private economy, and a key part of that has to be repealing the taxes they introduced in the last budget, which are kneecapping investors, kneecapping small business people, kneecapping those who want to back themselves to get ahead, because at the moment, public spending is outstripping the productive part of the economy. That's why we have too much money chasing too few goods, which stokes inflation, leads to higher interest rates, and means when people go to the supermarket, they're paying more and getting less.

Graeme Goodings: You're suggesting you would repeal some taxes. That's less income for the government. How can you run a successful ship with less money?

Tim Wilson: Well, that's why we've also outlined a series of measures already around making sure that we cut back on public expenditure. I've outlined a number of them already. We've also announced policies around welfare only being for Australian citizens, because if you get the budget focused back on investment into the future growth of the Australian economy, you'll grow the economy faster than you will public spending, and there won't be inflationary pressure. At the moment, what the government is doing is it's smashing the private economy, expanding the size of the public sector, and it means that there's too much money chasing too few goods and services. That's why we have inflation, and that's why when people go to the supermarket, they're paying more and getting less.

Graeme Goodings: The public sector, public servants, the numbers have grown dramatically over the Labor years. Would you cut back the number of public servants?

Tim Wilson: We've outlined bureaucracies that we’d get rid of, and of course part of that will be making sure that we get proper use of that money, but there's a bigger conversation around making sure we have an effective public service to support the country, and of course, we'll have more to announce in the lead-up to the next election. But I'm sorry to the many Australians who listen to the government, and just they keep promising that they can keep giving things out forever. The government has to pull its belt in first, before it turns around to Australians and asks them to pull their belt in.

Graeme Goodings: The NDIS is a major cost to the government. They've announced reforms in that area. Have they gone far enough?

Tim Wilson: Well, they've barely been implemented. We need action now. The government was dragged kicking and screaming to NDIS reform and cutting back the fraud and corruption and putting in proper integrity measures. They opposed it when we were in government. They even opposed it when they were in government. Now eventually they've accepted some need for change, but they haven't gone on and fully implemented it. So, yes, we need to make sure they fully deliver it, and my hope is that they will. But even within their modelling, they still had some tolerance for growth in fraud and corruption. I consider that unacceptable.

Graeme Goodings: When it comes to business, it needs to be incentivised. How can you do that without adding cost to the taxpayer?

Tim Wilson: The easiest way is to make sure that we cut taxes for businesses to grow and invest in their future and employ Australians. That's why the last federal budget was such a disaster. It was designed around how to maximise government revenue. But of course, it turned around to anybody who was starting up a small business, wanting to see it grow and be successful, and saying the government is going to come and take half of it, and effectively have a 50% shareholder. That isn't the sustainable way forward. What we need is small businesses in particular to be part of our national success story. That means that they need to be able to back themselves, invest in their future, grow and employ people in their communities and across the country. If you do that, you'll build the future of an innovative and productive economy. Instead, the government is doing the reverse.

Graeme Goodings: I think it's fair to say you accept that there are international factors at play in the cost of living crisis in Australia. How important are global prices and supply chains compared with domestic spending?

Tim Wilson: Domestic spending is absolutely the primary driver. Yesterday was the fourth interest rate rise we've had this year. We had three before that. The first one was on the 3rd of February; the first bomb dropped on Tehran wasn't until the 28th of February. So, to just dismiss it all as international factors, as the government wants to do, is missing the real story. It has mostly been driven by domestic factors. International factors are playing a role too, but it also is a reminder that you need to have the government being prudent and responsible, because when they get to a position where events beyond our control have an impact, we want to be in a stronger position to do so. Instead, we've been left exposed to because of the approach of the Albanese government and Jim Chalmers.

Graeme Goodings: Fuel prices are having a dramatic impact on the economy as a whole, and that affects every single person, from the man on the land to people pushing a trolley in the supermarket. Would you be in favour of reducing the fuel excise tax?

Tim Wilson: We've already announced that if there's two weeks where the price of a barrel of Brent crude is over $100 US dollars, that there would be a reduction in the excise of 27 cents per litre for unleaded, because we understand how important that is for Australian motorists and their capacity to be able to support themselves and their families, and more to the point, we've provided offsets for that through the reforms we're proposing for tobacco excise, where at the moment, you know, we're losing huge amounts of government revenue year on year because illegal crime gangs are taking advantage of illicit tobacco. By cutting the excise by 80%, we'll get the focus back on an illegal product, and that actually raises tax revenue so we can take from organised crime and back Australian households.

Graeme Goodings: If the government cuts spending and growth as much as you would like, how soon do you think we would see rates falling and by how much?

Tim Wilson: Well, there's a big difference between if we were in government today, we're not, and where we're going to be after the next election. But it always takes time to make sure you get investment delivering growth in the Australian economy, and also, of course, you've got to do things through budgetary frameworks. But over the life of a term of government, what you want is a turnaround where Australians have hope. At the moment, one of the most cancerous effects of inflation is that it eats into the confidence of the middle class of Australians, aspirational Australians who want to get ahead. We need hope in this country that we can have a better future if we work together, and if we have a strong policy setting that is focused on empowering the Australian community and building a better future for all of us.

Graeme Goodings: What is your forecast for interest rates into the future unless changes are made?

Tim Wilson: Well, I don't have a forecast, but I know what the market is forecasting, and they're forecasting another potential increase in interest rates in November and possibly one next year as well. I know how much yesterday will have smashed the confidence of Australians, and there'll be a lot of Australians who will be sitting around the kitchen tables last night and going, "There's no more fat to cut". And they're struggling to make ends meet as it already is. People are already turning to the baked beans as a pathway to reduce costs in their household. I don't think Australian households could wear another couple of interest rate rises. But if the government won't pull its belt in, unfortunately, they're turning to the Australian people and asking them to do it in their place.

Graeme Goodings: Tim Wilson, Shadow Treasurer, thanks so much for your time today.

[ENDS]