Monday, 29 September 2026

Topics: interest rates; inflation; Iran conflict.

E&OE……………………..

Sarah Ferguson: Tim Wilson is the Shadow Treasurer. Tim Wilson, welcome.

Tim Wilson: Thank you for having me, Sarah.

Sarah Ferguson: Do you accept the RBA's analysis that the war in the Gulf has added to persistent domestic inflation to create these current conditions?

Tim Wilson: I don't think anybody can discount the problems of the Iran conflict and what it's doing to headline inflation, but the core problem comes from underlying inflation. We know that at the start of this year we got our first interest rate rise on the 3rd of February, the first bomb on Tehran didn't lie until the end of that month. We've had three interest rate rises throughout this year while the rest of the advanced world has not really had the same interest rate increases, and so I see this as a compounding of a domestic problem where we see, of course, an influence of international events, no one's disputing otherwise, but the core of the problem remains with the government and with government spending, something they consistently argued had no relationship, but we're increasingly seeing is actually having an impact.

Sarah Ferguson: Would a Coalition government take a harder line against Donald Trump and his war on Iran given how much it's hurting Australia, Australians and Australian businesses?

Tim Wilson: Well, the Coalition will always stand up for our national interest in making sure that we get the best outcome, but we don't determine the outcome in the Iranian conflict. I have no doubt that conversations if we were in office would be held between the Administration and of course a Taylor-led government, but I think it's prejudging conclusions from something like this when we're not in government at the time that the conflict is occurring.

Sarah Ferguson: Does the impact of oil prices in Australia reinforce the argument about the urgency of decarbonising the economy to reduce as much as possible our reliance on foreign oil?

Tim Wilson: Well, I think that's a very rosy and optimistic outlook. The reality is we use liquid fuels in most of our economy, we're the highest consumer of diesel in the world per capita. We need fuels, we need to obviously import them if we don't have domestic capacity. We've outlined as part of a series of measures our approach towards building our sovereign capacity to be able to have sovereign fuels, whether it's gas, whether it's other sorts of refined fuels, because we know that we're going into a more challenging world and having a balance of making sure we get prices down while also increasing sovereign capacity is critical. We're not going to be able to remove those liquid fuels from industrial practices, we're not going to be able to remove them from a lot of industry, so just suddenly turning to the idea that we can decarbonise and achieve that objective, I think, is a bit shallow.

Sarah Ferguson: Let's go back to your principal argument, which is about government spending. In terms of cuts that should be made, that you would make, earlier today you said that the Coalition would target fraud in the NDIS, aged care home care and childcare. Now, the government has already announced significant changes to target fraud, what additional money are you saying you can save?

Tim Wilson: What we believe is there should be integrity measures across all government programs, and part of the challenge of course is that this government has allowed a lot of fraud and corruption to exist in these schemes. We want to make sure that integrity is at the heart of how honest Australian taxpayers' money is spent…

Sarah Ferguson: I think we all agree that problems with the NDIS started under, started at the beginning of the scheme, continued under the previous Coalition government, continued until there was a bipartisan agreement to target fraud in the NDIS. So, to my question, what additional money are you saying you could save given this is your answer to what we need to do to rein in spending?

Tim Wilson: It's not the sole answer, it's part of a package of things we need to look at. We've said we’ll end housing bureaucracies that don't build homes, we'll look at the climate bureaucracy, which is not of course leading to significant emissions reduction cuts, we're going to incorporate welfare. We're looking at a whole package of policies because we know that the government needs to live within its means, we know that the government is currently actively stimulating the volume of inflation in the economy and putting upward pressure on interest rates. That's why today we've seen an interest rate hike and people are paying more for their mortgages, and they're going to go on and buy fewer goods at the supermarket at higher prices.

Sarah Ferguson: Well, let's talk about cuts to government spending. I put the question to you before: what additional money do you say you can save given that the Coalition supported the government's measure to reduce $37.8 billion already from the NDIS? Are you saying you'll go further?

Tim Wilson: Well, what I'm waiting to see is whether the government actually delivers on what they have promised they're going to go on and deliver. Integrity measures are not something you just pass through legislation, a lot of it sits within the ministerial discretion, but it's very important that we make sure honest Australian taxpayers' money is spent in an appropriate way, we're not having the most vulnerable in our community targeted or abused in the process, and we need to make sure that it's not having a stimulating effect on inflation, which of course is pushing up interest rates for mortgage holders and of course means that Australians are going to the supermarket and they're putting things in their supermarket trolley and they're paying more and getting less as a result.

Sarah Ferguson: Yes, but put some figures on this Tim Wilson, if you would, because if you're saying this is fundamental to reigning in government spending, I think it's fair for people to understand what kinds of figures you’d be targeting. You're talking about the NDIS, home care, in aged care and childcare. Put some dollar figures on how much you think you can save beyond that which the government is proposing to do.

Tim Wilson: Well, let's wait and see firstly what the government does do, and we have two more budgets between now and of course the next federal election. What I'm simply saying is we believe that making sure we have control of these programs, that they're not being abused by organised crime, by corruption and fraud, is essential to what Australians should expect of their government. So, we have two more budgets between now and the next federal election. We will wait and, of course, release a package of things, a package of measures around how we're going to build out a sustainable budget in the lead-up to the next election, but until we see where the government gets to, it's challenging to just be able to answer explicitly what dollar figure there's going to be.

Sarah Ferguson: So you've got no dollar figures on any policies, any specific numbers on policies that you can suggest are going to be changed by your side of politics to rein in what you say a current crisis in government-fuelled inflation?

Tim Wilson: Well, can I ask, Sarah, do you have a copy of the next two federal budgets in front of you so I can read them and I can tell you where the government has landed?

Sarah Ferguson: Well, so we're going to wait until we've had two budgets before we get any detail from you on addressing a current crisis?

Tim Wilson: Well, as I've outlined already, we don't know what's going to be in the next two federal budgets, but the one thing we do know is because the government isn't being prudent in its financial management, we are seeing continued public expenditure go towards stoking inflation. That's putting up interest rates, and of course it means mortgage holders are paying more and they're going to the supermarket and they're putting things in their trolley and they're paying more and getting less as a result.

Sarah Ferguson: All right, here's a hostage to fortune, and this is a yes or no answer: should treasurers always accept responsibility for the level at which the Reserve Bank sets rates?

Tim Wilson: Well, that's a decision obviously made by the independent Reserve Bank, but of course a government should take responsibility for its budget and its contribution towards stoking inflation, which is currently what is not happening under the Treasurer. We know that he seems to have had mistakes or accidents happen to him now 16 times over the life of his treasurership, which is a pretty clear reflection of the promises and the challenges that he has not met.

Sarah Ferguson: Oh, well, I was going for a yes or no, you can't get everything you want. Tim Wilson, thank you very much indeed for joining us.

Tim Wilson: Thanks, Sarah.

[ENDS]