Wednesday 13 May 2026

Transcript - Interview on 2GB Radio, Afternoons

Topics: Federal Budget

E&OE...

Michael McLaren: Well, Tim Wilson is the Shadow Treasurer. He's with me on the line from Canberra. Tim, I appreciate your time. Thank you.

Tim Wilson: Thank you, Michael, for having me.

Michael McLaren: It was an easier task to defend the status quo in 2019 and in 2016 against Bill Shorten because you had the demographics on your side. You look at the demography today, the boomers are no longer the major voting cohort. Their children and grandchildren now outnumber them at the polling booth and in two years' time they'll outnumber them by even more. Kostas I think's right where he says they've looked at the numbers and the government have worked out well, we need to win this many people from this cohort to hang on to power. He says the budget is a political document more than an economic statement. I think he's right. How do you counteract it?

Tim Wilson: Well, it's true that it's more of a political document than an economic statement because what Labor is doing is saying to the next generation of Australians that we are going to knee-cap you before you start. We're going to lift up the ladder of opportunity from you before you get your first foot on the rung and they're going to sap the aspiration out of the Australian economy. Now they might think that that's a political strategy, but the reality is young Australians are desperate to get ahead, to save hard, to buy their first home, to set up a small business and I think they've fundamentally misunderstood the sense of energy, drive and focus that young Australians have. This budget is only going to undermine that and I think they're going to be held accountable for it. And how can you trust anything they're saying when this is such a bad-faith budget where they have put forward before the election and the Prime Minister himself was red-hot with rage at the suggestion that he would do these changes and has now done them.

Michael McLaren: Well, this is it. Mind you, as Phil Coorey says today, they're probably emboldened by the fact that they were rewarded at the last federal election after breaking the promise on Stage 3 tax cuts, the Division 296 tax on the three million plus super accounts. They did all that, they said they weren't going to do it, they did it, got a bigger win and they probably feel on safe ground.

Tim Wilson: Well, they might feel on safe ground, but the reality is this scale of broken trust and bad faith with the community resonates. What they think and this is hubris on their part is they think the way that Australians are convinced is if they just get up and pronounce talking points or political spin that Australians are just going to go for it, rather than in understanding that these conversations around financial planning, management, how to get ahead, are conversations around the kitchen tables of the nation and parents influence the behavior of their children and children vice versa. To be fair, the Prime Minister absolutely wants to start fights around those kitchen tables, but actually families more often than not try and find ways to work together to improve the situation for themselves, their children and their grandchildren and that and essentially the Prime Minister is betting against the Australian family.

Michael McLaren: Well, he wants to be king of the kids, there's no doubt about it. But you know, in the past the Coalition were the king of the parents and the grandparents and they have accumulated significant wealth and I don't discourage any of that. I'm against these changes myself, but they're no longer the voting majority. So your task you would concede is that much more difficult than it was for say Malcolm Turnbull or Scott Morrison and predecessors to mount the same arguments against broken promises, changes to the CGT discount, negative gearing, because out there, there is a younger cohort that are growing in number who have at least been led to believe and are believing that the system and these very tax arrangements are what is holding them back from achieving the Australian dream.

Tim Wilson: Well, except it's not how young Australians are living their lives today and I think this is where the government has completely miscalculated their decision. Young Australians once upon a time used to save for a house deposit, they bought their first home, then they worried about setting up a small business or their long-term retirement planning. Now, it's the reverse. They're starting with the accumulation of shares, the Australian Stock Exchange did a report on this only a couple of years ago showing that nearly half of young Australians aged 21 own shares or ETFs or other types of financial instruments that I would never have dreamed of owning at that age. They're using those to save for a first home deposit. Now the government is going to come along and effectively double the tax rate on any growth they get from that. They're increasing rents by admission of their own budget document as well as reducing housing supply. So young Australians are going to get hit three times over: higher rents, increased capital gains if they invest their deposit so they can bring the future forward and then they're going to get less housing supply by their own admission which is going to obviously if they keep increasing or overshooting migration above their target, which their budget document admits they will by 90,000 over the next two years, you're going to see an upward pressure on house prices.

Michael McLaren: Well on migration, I mean this is one of the big factors and they never want to talk about this, but even as you say in their own document last night, the government has admitted that net overseas immigration will increase by 35,000 beyond what the figure late last year suggested it would be and I think between this financial year and next we're going to be looking at an additional 55,000. It'll be more than that of course when all the numbers are tabulated compared with the rather significant well-above-average figure that we were led to believe was already coming. I mean unless you address that you are going to be constantly putting pressure on the supply and demand balance in housing aren't you?

Tim Wilson: That's the point. The government is knee-capping young Australians on the basis of their economic program. It's to pump people in to inflate their budget numbers. It's going to make it harder for young Australians to be able to buy their own home and tomorrow night in his budget reply the Leader of the Opposition Angus Taylor is going to be very clear-eyed about the need to make sure that young Australians have a chance to get into a first home, but it's because we're going to one, focus on supply, but also reduce demand. The government's approach is the reverse: reduce supply and increase demand.

Michael McLaren: Okay, so I'm getting the sense here Tim that your task and with Angus will now clearly be to convince the children and the grandchildren of the boomers that all this stuff about intergenerational inequity is a load of bunkum and that even if they believe it is real and look let's be blunt we know that younger people historically I mean this has always the case have fewer assets than older people because they've worked for less time they've had less time to accumulate wealth and so on. Now you can have a debate about whether the tax system incentivizes that or tweaks it, okay. But your task will clearly be to convince these younger people that all this talk about intergenerational inequity is as I've been saying for weeks now, a ruse, it's a disguise. All this is and you look at the budget numbers and it's obvious, all this is is Jim Chalmers bringing more money into his piggy bank to spend on his pet projects in the future.

Tim Wilson: Well, it's actually worse than that. Your point is right, but what he has actually done in this budget is grandfather a lot of arrangements particularly around property. So those who are established and have been there before and accumulated wealth get to keep it all while younger Australians never get their chance to get their first foot on the ladder of opportunity.

Michael McLaren: So it exacerbates inequality rather than addresses it.

Tim Wilson: It exacerbates the problem of inequality, but I'd also stress this which is yes it's to explain that what the government's doing is at best smoke and mirrors, but there's also another compelling role for us which is to build out an economic program that focus on how young Australians can get ahead where hard work pays off, where they're in control of their own lives and most importantly they're respected by the Australian government. And we'll be doing that in now starting tomorrow night with the budget reply speech, I have my National Press Club speech next Wednesday and we're going to keep doing that because Labor's agenda is simply to manage debt, decline and a reduction of living standards of Australians, ours has to be one built on hope and aspiration and where young Australians back themselves to get ahead.

Michael McLaren: Speaking of smoke, one aspect that wasn't really addressed in the budget is cigarette excise. Now look I mean there are people on your own back bench that I think are making very valid points here that if we really want to get rid of as best as possible the criminal element out of this market which government have incentivized through excise going out of control, the federal government has to take a stand and say all right we're going to have to slash excise. Now is it 20%, 30, 40, 50% whatever, but until we get closer to price parity with the illegal product, all the enforcement in the world will do nothing to dampen and tamper down on what has become a five billion dollar economic boom for bikie gangs and overseas crime organizations. Now I assume somewhere tomorrow night we'll hear something about cigarette excise.

Tim Wilson: Well, we'll wait and see but what we know is what's in the budget documents that this year and next year there's a two and a half billion dollar write-down in revenue from tobacco excise because the government has basically given complete license for organized crime, bikie gangs and criminals to run our tobacco retail industry and the distribution mechanisms. And be aware Michael, I've been learning about this recently, we are seeing now increasingly the same behavior in alcohol and in spirits.

Michael McLaren: All in your home state Victoria it seems to be the epicenter of this crazy.

Tim Wilson: Unfortunately it is. I mean you've got the government funding organized crime through the CFMEU-Labor cartel on the big build projects, they're using that money to then go on and build up an industry of illicit tobacco and it seems now increasingly illicit alcohol all funded by the taxpayer. And when we have asked the Prime Minister whether any federal money is being fed into these projects which are feeding organized crime and corruption he won't even do an audit. When I talk about respecting taxpayers, that starts with public money from honest taxpayers from honest work, not going into the hand of disorganized crime.

Michael McLaren: Yeah, but part of the role from government has to be a realization that the excise tap has been pulled too hard, right? I mean you would accept that?

Tim Wilson: I think everybody rational accepts that but it's the government's own hubris and not being willing to acknowledge that that's stopping them making measured change.

Michael McLaren: Well this is it. I mean even their Labor cohorts in the states are saying listen guys you've got to do something about it. So I mean the you would agree surely Tim that excise has to be reduced on cigarettes.

Tim Wilson: I definitely agree in principle that we are by having it at the level we are and continuing to grow it is absolutely feeding organized crime to profiteer and turning good citizens into engaging in illegal conduct which you know isn't healthy for society because it promotes disrespect for the law, it has an impact on the taxpayer and we need to do something about it and it's logical the big question is how much would you have to cut it to actually stop the behavior because I see numbers which I think are too conservative. There's too much money that is easily made from selling illegal cigarettes in this country, the distribution systems are set up and Labor is refusing to acknowledge or address it because they would have to acknowledge that their whole approach to tobacco regulation has failed.

Michael McLaren: Well it has. Just finally, bracket creep. Will that be addressed tomorrow night by Angus Taylor because I think that's one thing that will speak right to the heart of the young people. We talk about intergenerational inequity, I mean they are now growing up as the cohort that is part of the highest PAYE taxed cohort in our nation's history and that is largely because they are being captured by bracket creep. So I mean there is genuine if we want to talk about genuine economic reform I mean the government could have for example looked at tweaking capital gains tax or negative gearing and then redistributed that capital to guaranteed ending of bracket creep with the tax system, but they didn't do that. The Coalition have mused that they are interested in looking at wiping out bracket creep in the tax system. Is that something we might see tomorrow night?

Tim Wilson: Well, there will be tax measures in the budget reply but it's not my job to forerun them, but I think we all agree that income tax is too high a share of the overall tax base. We all accept that bracket creep is a massive problem. Look at the last election the so-called tax cuts the government offered were wiped out by inflation by December. The proposals they're putting forward in this budget will be wiped out again by December because this government can't control its spending addiction. Their economic model is to stoke inflation, tax inflation, then spend the inflation and keep it on a constant cycle which is driving bracket creep. We've seen a 3% reduction in real wages under the life of this government and until you address the structural punishment of the income tax system it's not going to be fixed.

Michael McLaren: Good to speak. We'll look forward to the address tomorrow night by Angus Taylor. Thank you.

Tim Wilson: Thanks Michael.

[ENDS]