Monday, 28 September 2026

Topics: Final Budget Outcome; inflation; interest rates; One Nation.

E&OE……………………..

Clinton Maynard: The Shadow Treasurer is Tim Wilson. G’day, Tim.

Tim Wilson: G’day, Clinton.

Clinton Maynard: Is this good news? Jim Chalmers seems to think so.

Tim Wilson: Well, he thinks so because he likes to claim that there's some sort of improvement. In fact, what he skipped is that he's spending $382 billion more since he's come to government. That's why there's constant pressure on inflation and that's why there's a risk that interest rates rise, or very serious risk that interest rates will increase tomorrow, and in fact, there may be yet two more increases over the next financial year.

Clinton Maynard: And Tim, I'll get on to the interest rate increasing in just a moment, but he is saying there that the debt has actually come down and from a cash perspective, the budget is better off to the tune of $230 billion since Labor took office. Do you trust that figure?

Tim Wilson: Essentially no, because what we know is every time they produce numbers, they're often followed through with upward revisions which highlight they're spending more, and as you said in your intro, this government is now on the precipice or on the verge of becoming the highest taxing government in Australian history, and we also know they're addicted to spending, and that isn't going to slow down just because he's given his press conference today.

Clinton Maynard: GDP as a share of taxes, a share of GDP has increased past 24%. He says that's not down to mining royalties, it's not because of individuals, it's because of investments on superannuation. Is that a bad thing though?

Tim Wilson: Well, he said basically this isn't because of hitting Australians. I mean investors and people who are superannuants are Australians. What he's done is borrowed from the future to fill his budget problems today. That means less investment in the productive part of the economy, less economic growth, and this is a problem and it does connect back essentially to interest rates. When you have government spending and the size of government growing faster than the private economy, you'll get inflation. That's why we have upward pressure on interest rates, and that's why when Australians go to the supermarket, they're getting less in their trolley and paying more.

Clinton Maynard: The RBA is likely to increase rates by 0.25% tomorrow, potentially another increase in November as well. Jim Chalmers was asked about that today and of course, he said, well, I can't forecast what the RBA is going to do. But he then pointed the finger to what's happening overseas, that most developed nations are also increasing interest rates because of petrol-driven inflation. Is that a fair defence?

Tim Wilson: Not at all, because firstly we've had three interest rate rises this year. That was off the back of inflation data from last year. The first interest rate rise that happened this year was the start of February. The first bomb in Iran went off at the end of February, and this is the problem. Australia has an underlying inflation problem that is only partly influenced by international events. The real problem is government spending, which is driving the inflation problem locally. Of course, the rest of the world, which wasn't increasing interest rates at the start of this year, are now seeing an uptick, but they're following the consequences of an international event. Ours preceded the Iran crisis.

Clinton Maynard: I think everyone agrees that government spending, except Labor, needs to come down. Warren Hogan from Judo Bank, his forecast is another four increases after these, well, four including these two. Is it too late to prevent that? Because even if the government stops spending as much, it's going to take a long time for that to wash through the economy. Do we have to raise the white flag and concede interest rates are going to be going up for the next six to nine months?

Tim Wilson: I don't think we should raise the white flag, but it's very concerning. I mean, four interest rate rises is equivalent to another 1%. That's going to break a lot of small businesses and a lot of households who are already struggling. Yes, it's going to take time to wash through. That's why preventive action needs to happen now. The best thing the government can do is crack down on the waste and corruption which is all inflationary in government programs, but we need this Treasurer to kick his inflation addiction, because it might boost his bottom line, but it's being paid for by Australian households.

Clinton Maynard: So, Tim Wilson, your Treasurer, where do you make the cuts? We know that the public service, for instance, has grown quite dramatically under Labor. Do you cut back in the public service?

Tim Wilson: Well, I think we need to cut back on these open-ended public schemes, which have become a honey pot of fraud and corruption like the NDIS. We're seeing

Clinton Maynard: But they've said they're making big changes to the NDIS that's passed through parliament.

Tim Wilson: They've said they're changing it, there's been no actual change so far. We have similar things in home age care packages. We know there are phantom children enrolled in child care. We have some big problems in what the government is doing. And of course, we need to make sure that the public service is always fit for purpose, getting value for the Australian community. They've had 28 public servants every day since they've been in office and I don't think that Australia is better run as a consequence of it. So, we're looking at all of these measures at the moment, but stopping the waste and the abuse of public money has to be central to it, because it's not just a waste of public money, it's actually stoking inflation too.

Clinton Maynard: And with the Shadow Treasurer, Tim Wilson. Tim, just a last one while I've got you here, you would have seen that the news poll detail out today showing that Pauline Hanson is preferred Prime Minister for Queensland voters. If you had one message for a traditional Coalition supporter thinking of switching their support to One Nation, what would it be?

Tim Wilson: Well, firstly, only we can defeat Labor. The tragedy is when you look at opinion polls, if it's a fight between Labor and One Nation, Labor wins. If it's a fight between the Coalition and Labor, the Coalition…

Clinton Maynard: But if you end up doing some sort of deal after the election to share power with One Nation, that's not the case necessarily.

Tim Wilson: Well, I don't agree with that, because it comes down to who can win seats in different parts of the country, and the key thing we need is a bold and united party that's going to govern for the best interest of the nation.

Clinton Maynard: So, you don't think there would be a deal after an election?

Tim Wilson: I'm not going to prejudge the will of the Australian people…

Clinton Maynard: Tim, you can. You can. Let us know.

Tim Wilson: No, I have no intention of doing so. I want to make sure we have a majority Liberal government elected after the next election.

Clinton Maynard: Good to talk to you, Tim.

Tim Wilson: Thanks, Clinton. Take care.

[ENDS]