20 October 2026, Sydney

“The alternative agenda”

Speech to Australian Finance Industry Association Conference

Opening

I want to start by recognising my Parliamentary colleague, Helen Haines, who was violently attacked yesterday in Wangaratta. We are all in shock at this attack and are struggling to make sense of it. Helen is a warm-hearted person, and my personal work with her has always been constructive and community-focused. While the details of this attack will continue to be revealed, it is important to reiterate that there is no place for violence, including in our politics. And we wish Helen the best in what will be a prolonged recovery.

Introduction
Thank you, Di. Thank you to Mario, the board and the team at AFIA for the invitation to speak today.

You heard the Government's agenda before lunch. The run sheet has me down for the alternative agenda, so here it is.

The economy customers live in

I am deeply worried about the health of the economy.

Federally, we have a government that has co-opted the Andrews Labor government economic model in Victoria.

It is a model that is focused on using government to pay off voting blocs, then hike taxes on the productive economy, and when that runs out – rack up debt. It doesn’t end well. We know Victoria has gone to the Commonwealth and asked for a bail out.

And where goes Victoria, goes the nation. This model is now being turbocharged on a national scale. We are living it through record spending outside a pandemic, and projected deficits for the next forty years. As we saw in the Federal Budget, next it is higher taxes on the productive sectors of the economy. And as we have crossed the threshold of $1 trillion in debt, the projection is $1.25 trillion by the end of the decade.

Today’s debt is tomorrow’s taxes. But today’s debt is also today’s inflation. Under the Albanese government’s economic model, Australia is trapped in an inflation vortex – and it is speeding up.

That’s why underlying inflation ticked over the target band in July of last year, seven months before a bomb dropped on Tehran. That’s why we’ve had 16 interest rate rises, and four this year with the risk of more this financial year.

That’s why we have the biggest drop in living standards in the developed world, real wages are going backwards as inflation outstrips wage growth, and when Australians go to the supermarket they are paying more and getting less. Prices are up 16.8 per cent. And it hurts savings too.

No wonder we have collapses in consumer confidence. We also have collapses in small business confidence and 30 go insolvent every day. And we have three-fold more voluntarily closing their books. And as the largest employer, when they close their doors we are seeing an uptick in unemployment. Unemployment is already 4.7 per cent in September, and a recent IMF report projected 800,000 Australians would be out of work by the end of next year.

Put simply, we are living the cost of government policy designed to feed itself, not the organic institutions of our country: family, community and small business.

Canberra is now spending 26.9 per cent of GDP. Servicing debt is now the fastest growing area of the Budget, and that was on bond yields of 4.8 per cent, they’re now around 5.25 per cent. Unless we change the economic model, the trajectory will not change.

Competition and the non-bank sector

In his Neville Kennard Address, former Finance Minister and Secretary-General of the OECD, Mathias Cormann, correctly observed that “the question is not whether openness, competition, sound money and enterprise deliver prosperity”. It is. What we need an economic reset that signals productivity and competition because productivity lowers prices, and competition disciplines them.

In finance we are living the consequences of regulation designed by lawyers from a Royal Commission that has focused on minimising risk, rather than managing it.

The consequence of the Hayne Royal Commission has not removed risk, it has just relocated it. And prudential regulation has made it difficult for the big banks to manage risk as part of their book.

So higher risk or lower security businesses gravitate to private credit and non-bank lenders. In the process, it concentrates risk and increases costs that are ultimately passed onto customers.

This concerns me because we are currently in a finance environment where risk is concentrated and concurrently exposed to dramatic shifts in government policy – like tradies and developers are exposed to changes in SMSF lending, negative gearing, capital gains as well as the unfolding disaster of small business taxes on trusts.

These are problems brought on by government, but it creates specific risks for private credit and non-bank lenders where risk is concentrated.

The pathway through these problems is rebalancing of risk from concentrating it to distributing it because we expect rules and regulations not to fall for the false promise of mitigation toward management.

Industry growth

We need an attitudinal reset to the role of our regulators. Our regulators respond to incentives like everyone else. Currently, regulators are tasked with minimising risk, and in some places compel it.

The incentive for regulators is to impose more complex regulation and costs on businesses. They lack an obligation to weigh decisions against the consequences of market entry and industry growth.

That needs to change. Regulators fulfil an important function in our economy, but it must be weighed against the consequences of their decisions. We can’t afford an economy controlled by Cassandras.

The Albanese government doesn’t have the balance right. In July, the Treasurer sent both regulators a Statement of Expectations. That is a document setting out what the Government wants from them, and this one asked them to support growth. It is a statement. It is not law. Not a word of either regulator's duties changed.

In September came a Financial Innovation Strategy and a promise of a committee. Another forum, not an obligation. And the independent review of ASIC's sandbox, tabled in July, found the team that helps new businesses through the rules was an afterthought in their priorities.

A Coalition government’s attitude will be very different.

To that end, I am interested in adopting the Monetary Authority of Singapore's dual mandate as both a strict financial regulator as well as its sector development responsibilities.

I am looking very closely at this model for regulation, to redress the imbalance of regulation from risk minimisation to risk management. In plain English, that means regulators like ASIC and APRA would have explicit obligations to help industry grow, compete and innovate.

Britain changed its law in 2023 so its regulators must also help the economy compete and grow, and they have had to report to Parliament on their progress.

The trade-off for regulation that embeds risk management may be heavier penalties for breaches when harm is caused by established operators. There also needs to be a focus on proportionate impacts for smaller operators so regulation doesn't become a barrier to entry.

Similarly, a mandate to weigh decisions against industry growth promotes internal tension so regulators understand the consequences of their decisions. That will ensure proportionality and slow the race to regulatory judgement.

I want ASIC, APRA and the Reserve Bank to focus on enforcement, as part of a broader understanding that we need a “get to yes” economy.

Backing small business

And it is part of a broader growth-orientated agenda that we will take to the next election.

The last Federal Budget is a watershed moment in our nation’s history, because it overturns the very foundations of our economy. It reversed the incentives from Canberra serving citizens, to citizens serving Canberra.

This isn’t an economic model I have any intention of continuing.

That is why we have already announced we will repeal the government’s changes to capital gains tax, negative gearing and their small business tax on trusts. We have also announced a revitalised Charter of Budget Honesty which includes a speed limit on spending, a target toward surpluses in the medium-term, and a tax to GDP cap.

We have also announced increasing the instant asset write off to $50,000 and making it permanent, as well as our Tax Back Guarantee, where income tax thresholds are indexed to hold back the theft from inflation.

But that is not enough. If we want a productive, innovative and dynamic economy we have to re-anchor the economy around challengers and disruptors.

That is why we are consulting on a Small Business Act that is focused on creating a legislative shield for Australians to back themselves. We want to re-anchor the economy back around those who are most likely to employ Australians relative to their size and are most innovative and most productive.

So far, we have consulted on a single definition to streamline legislation, a right to bid for government contracts, a right to be paid with maximum payment timeframes, and a right to be heard and consulted.

But that is only the beginning. I have also flagged that I would like to see a broader regulatory reset and industrial relations reform driven through small business too.

I see this as important to rebalance the economy by backing small business, but even more I think artificial intelligence is going to lead to an explosion in the number of Australians who seize the opportunity to establish a small business or side hustle.

We know access to capital is an essential challenge for businesses to grow and thrive. And I am keen to see policy that ensures more capital is available to help small business grow. And I want to back their enterprise.

Conclusion

Finance is the breath of economic life, and an act of hope.

Every day, you back those who back themselves.

Every loan you write is a wager that tomorrow can be better than today, and every new business you fund is a wager on human ingenuity.

Australia needs a stand-up economy, not a sit-down economy.

An economy where the people who take the risk get to keep the reward, and where the regulator is on the side of the challenger as well as the incumbent.

You work. You risk. You should get ahead.

That is the Australia we should finance.

Thank you.

[ENDS]